Gutierrez, A. P.; Ponti, L.

In sharp contrast to biological control that seeks control of pests below economic levels, eradication programs seek total extermination of pest species. However, eradication programs are often undertaken without knowledge of the pest's potential geographic distribution and relative abundance (i.e., geographic risk assessment), often leading to eradication efforts conducted across areas much greater than the potential permanent range of the target species. To demonstrate this, we review eradication efforts against the tropical New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in the SE USA and Mexico, the exotic sub-tropical tephritid Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata, medfly) in California, and the exotic tropical pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella, PBW) in the SW USA. We use mechanistic physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs) that are physiologically based time varying life tables to decompose the systems and to assess risk under extant and climate change scenarios.