McCollum, B. A.; Byrnes, J. E. K.; Sebens, K. P.

Climate change is driving species range shifts and population change in density and location globally. Two theories behind these shifts, that species in the ocean are largely tracking climate velocities, and the concept of long-term temporal turnover, have garnered increased attention recently. However, research in marine ecosystems has largely focused on mobile species, namely commercially important fishes. Here we examine changes in sessile invertebrate and algal species on vertical surfaces, subtidal rock walls, in the southern Gulf of Maine (GOM), and to what extent these changes might have been driven by 42 years of warming. In part due to ocean circulation patterns in the GOM, the thermally-sensitive species in this community are unlikely to track climate velocities by moving laterally, and are therefore disappearing, moving into deeper water, or adapting to novel thermal conditions. We find that some species, including one of the previously competitive dominants, Alcyonium siderium, have become exceedingly rare at these sites. Two other competitive dominants, Metridium senile and Aplidiiuam glabrum, have also declined precipitously. Meanwhile, the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, the non-native tunicate Didemnum vexillum, and a complex of erect bryozoans have become dominant space holders. Over the same period of time, average summer temperatures in the southern GOM increased by more than 3{degrees}C. Using occupancy derived thermal affinities, we find warm-affinity species increasing, while generally, cool and cold-affinity species are decreasing. All species which decreased in abundance normally occupy sites with temperatures below a mean of 17.4{degrees}C maximum summer temperatures. A few species did not change abundance despite the rapidly warming surface waters, indicating their broad tolerances and the importance of other biological processes in mediating community structure in the GOM. Overall, sessile rock wall communities in the southern GOM are transitioning to more thermally-tolerant species, most of which are not native to the Atlantic coast of North America.